FUTURE FUEL TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO AND ROADMAPPING FOR ASIA-PACIFIC

Nares Damrongchai and Greg TegartAPEC Center for Technology Foresight

National Science and Technology Development

Abstract

This paper describes a cooperative foresight study in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) to provide strategic intelligence on future fuels. The aim was to identify technology turning points in the energy sector, particularly fuel technologies, and to examine the opportunities for technology development and commercialization in manufacturing industry in the region. Foresight was used as an overall systematic and participatory approach to anticipate and manage change, and to develop effective policy options and strategies for the medium- to longer-term future.

The study was focused on hydrogen/fuel cells, conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons, and biofuels, all within the time frame to 2030. Scenario creation was used to provide a framework for understanding the role of emerging fuel technologies in energy futures while technology roadmapping has enabled identification of critical steps in development of these technologies. The aim was not to produce a set of detailed roadmaps for selected technologies but to develop a number of ambitious, but realistic, visions which would assist planning for future developments by industry, researchers and policy makers.

The outcome of this study has shown that although emphases on research and development of energy technologies will vary from one economy to another depending on their resource bases and their R&D capabilities, there is a clear need for cooperation and exchange of research information and personnel in materials and energy R&D within APEC. The integrated fuel technology roadmap that covered all three fuel areas have shown not only how they can be used in an integrated approach, but also pointed to opportunities of collaboration among member economies.

The study was only the beginning of a continuing dialogue between different working groups in APEC and its economies. The challenge of regional (inter-governmental) foresight, its limitations and effectiveness will be discussed.

Keywords: regional foresight, energy, technology roadmap

Systematization of Technology Roadmapping

Systematization of technology roadmapping

Cindy Johanna Ibarra González, André Ogliari, Nelson Back

Federal University of Santa Catarinae-

Abstract:

Technology roadmapping is increasingly being used by companies to guide the team in charge to plan the new products in a strategic way and to deal with competitors, customer expectations, a need for reducing in the product development time, and the rapid pace of technological change. A literature review of this process revealed the need for a simplified and practical guide to support the team in the systematization of information on technologies, products and markets, and in the positioning of this information in each layer of the roadmap in a given planning horizon. This process has been primarily presented in general terms without detailing the procedures required to facilitate the work of the planning team. Hence, this paper presents a review of the main approaches and different types of maps found in the literature, highlighting and analyzing the best practices suggested and the critical points. Based on this, a detailed and logical sequence of ativities is proposed along with a set of methods and tools to support the process of technology roadmapping illustrating the main steps by means of examples.

Keywords: planning of new products and technologies, technology roadmapping.

RoadMapping Process of the Photonic Component Industry

Demand and Price Evolution Forecasting as Tools for Facilitating the RoadMapping Process of the Photonic Component Industry

T. Kamalakis, I. Neokosmidis, D. Varoutas, and T. Sphicopoulos

Abstract

The photonic component industry is a highly innovative industry with a large value chain. In order to ensure the growth of the industry much effort must be devoted to road mapping activities. In such activities demand and price evolution forecasting tools can prove quite useful in order to help in the roadmap refinement and update process. This paper attempts to provide useful guidelines in roadmapping of optical components and considers two models based on diffusion theory and the extended learning curve for demand and price evolution forecasting.

Keywords—Roadmapping, Photonic Components, Forecasting, Diffusion Theory.

Roadmapping as a Collaborative Strategic

Roadmapping as a Collaborative Strategic Decision-Making Process: Shaping Social Dialogue Options for the European Banking Sector

Christos A. Ioannou, Panagiotis Panagiotopoulos, and Lampros Stergioulas

Abstract

The new status generated by technological advancements and changes in the global economy raises important issues on how communities and organisations need to innovate upon their traditional processes in order to adapt to the challenges of the Knowledge Society. The DialogoS+ European project aims to study the role of and promote social dialogue in the banking sector, strengthen the link between old and new members and make social dialogue at the European level a force for innovation and change, also given the context of the international crisis emerging in 2008-2009. Under the scope of DialogoS+, this paper describes how the community of Europe’s banking sector trade unions attempted to adapt to the challenges of the Knowledge Society by exploiting the benefits of new channels of communication, learning, knowledge generation and diffusion focusing on the concept of roadmapping. Important dimensions of social dialogue such as collective bargaining and working conditions are addressed.

Keywords—Banking Sector, Knowledge Society, Roadmapping, Social Dialogue.

Improving Quality Function Deployment to better support Technology Roadmapping

Thi Ngoc Truc, Pisut Koomsap†, Huynh Trung Luong Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani 12120, THAILAND

Email: ntntruc@yahoo.com1, pisut@ait.ac.th2

luong@ait.ac.th3

Abstract:

Manufacturers are facing the rapid growths of technology innovations and customer’s requirements. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been researched to assist the manufacturers in developing of new products so as to fulfill the customer needs. Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is among the supporting tools for TRM. It is considered as an essential tool to link customers’ needs to technology solutions in the TRM process. However, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is unavoidable. Uncertainty might lead to the output variability in QFD, and hence, misleads the manufacturers in the process of translating the customer’s needs to technology solutions. In this research, a technique that can help incorporate the uncertainty in the input information and the output variability of QFD will be developed to support for robust decision making in TRM process.

Keywords: Technology Roadmapping; Quality Function Deployment; uncertainty; good fit; robust decision making.

Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future

Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future

Thomas A. Kappel* Global Development, Tellabs, Inc., 4951 Indiana Ave., Lisle, IL 60532, USA Abstract

Roadmaps, in the traditional sense, are concerned mostly with space and position. In the way that industrial and public research institutions use the term, though, roadmaps reveal the time dimension of technological progress. The many and increasing applications of roadmaps have generated confusion about what they are for and what they accomplish amid the many tools and techniques of managing technology. Roadmapping is itself a trend, while it seeks to exploit the trends underlying technology. The practice has side effects, biases, and behavioral consequences that are often not visible to practitioners, and until now, were unexamined by researchers. This study provides an organizational perspective on roadmapping as currently practiced, presents the experience of several organizations that have implemented it, and evaluates the results.

Using a case-based, exploratory method the author addresses several practical questions, such as: What are the effects of roadmapping? How are they measured? Is roadmapping always appropriate? How would an organization know if it was roadmapping well? What are the various kinds of roadmaps and how do they relate to each other? In addition, some more general lessons about organizational behavior emerge from the case data. Cases were selected from several large industrial firms participating in a research consortium exploring the modern challenges and tools of technology management. These firms granted extensive access to the research team and actively participated in the analysis, demonstrating a unique and productive model of research collaboration between academic researchers and business practitioners.

Central to an understanding of roadmapping behavior is noticing the tension between its dual nature. Roadmaps are both forecasts of what is possible or likely to happen, as well as plans that articulate a course of action. They are, in a sense, personal to their authors. Roadmaps can be used to align organizations in times of predictable change, but have limited insight into disruptive change. The most influential roadmaps originate as responses to perceived threats, and link the technical storyline to organizational and personal concerns. For those who would implement the technique, the article suggests practical ways to use these and other findings and offers basic definitions and vital questions for future research.

Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping

R Phaal, CJP Farrukh and DR ProbertDepartment of Engineering, University of Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK

Abstract

Technology is an important strategic asset for many firms, and there is an increasing needto include technological considerations in strategy and planning processes. However,establishing and communicating the linkages between technology resources and companyobjectives presents a continuing challenge for many organisations. Technology roadmapping is atechnique that has the potential to support technology strategy and planning. Such maps can takevarious specific forms, but generally comprise a time-based chart linking technologydevelopments to future product and market requirements. The method has been successfullyapplied in a number of industrial contexts; however, initiating and maintaining the method on anongoing basis can be difficult. This paper describes the development and application of aprocess for supporting the rapid initiation of technology roadmapping in manufacturing firms.The 'start-up' process comprises a series of facilitated workshops that bring together variousfunctions in the business, including technology and marketing. The process supportsunderstanding and communication of the relationships between market and businessrequirements, product and service concepts, and technological solutions. The approachencourages learning and staff involvement, and identifies key knowledge gaps, enabling acompany-specific roadmapping process to be initiated quickly. In addition, theoretical aspects oftechnology roadmapping are discussed, in the context of managing technological knowledge.

Keywords: Technology roadmapping; technology planning; technology strategy.

RESEARCH ON APPLYING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH TO TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING

RESEARCH ON APPLYING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH TO TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING

Chunyan YANG, Ming YU Dept. Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China yangcy98@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn mingyu@tsinghua.edu.cn

Yedong Liao Beijing Eastar Technology Co, Ltd. liaoyedong@tsinghua.org.cn

Abstract:

Technology roadmapping is a tool for technology planning which has been caused more and more attention in both academic and industrial fields. In this paper, firstly, we summarize the technical problems emerging within technology roadmapping. Then, we demonstrate a methodology based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to address the decision making problems in evaluating technology alternatives in technology roadmap. Finally, we present a process which is easily implemental approach to technology roadmapping.

Keywords: Technology roadmapping, AHP, group decision making